Boeing's cutting-edge 787 Dreamliner must still overcome numerous challenges before it is delivered to clients and prove it really is a gamechanger for the aviation industry, according to analysts.
"A single flight is great but Boeing has got a lot of work ahead of them," Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst at the consulting firm Teal Group, said.
The Dreamliner's maiden flight on Tuesday, more than two years behind schedule, was just the beginning of an exhaustive 10-month flight test program.
The program must be completed before the aerospace giant can make its first delivery, scheduled for the fourth quarter of next year, to Japanese launch customer All Nippon Airways.
During the program, six 787s will fly almost continuously around the globe in a bid to provide the craft over 3000 hours of flight testing and the same amount of ground testing, which is required for official approval from US authorities.
The testing will begin in earnest in February.
Such a timeframe is normal for the introduction of new aircraft, noted Aboulafia, who said "it took a couple of years for the A380," referring to Boeing's European rival Airbus' jumbo jet.
Boeing's other major obstacle, beside the testing phase, is the need to concurrently ramp-up production to complete the 840 orders for the Dreamliner that are already on the books, said Standard and Poor's analyst Richard Tortoriello.
Boeing aims to build seven Dreamliners a month in 2011, and accelerate to 10 a month by 2013.
The mid-size, twin-aisle Dreamliner is Boeing's first new model in more than a decade, and uses a revolutionary design to eclipse its predecessor, the 777.
Roughly half of the Dreamliner is made of composite materials, such as carbon fiber-reinforced resin, compared with 12 percent for the 777 -- aimed at improving fuel efficiency and reducing maintenance costs.
Changes to this design that may be required to comply with official requirements could slow down production, said Aboulafia.
"The real question is in the course of certification they may find the need to reinforce the structure," he said, adding that such shake-ups could "add to the weight and decrease flight performance."
Boeing sees the 787 as the future for the industry, as well as for its commercial strategy.
The Dreamliner "will set the bar for years to come," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program, at a news conference following the plane's first flight, near Boeing's Everett plant in Washington state.
Boeing is sure the use of composites "will only grow," Russ Young, a Boeing spokesman, said on Tuesday.
"It's a bold step on our part" but Boeing has done its homework and "we realize composites are ready for these kinds of applications," he said.
Boeing launched the Dreamliner program in April 2004 and initially had planned to deliver the first airplane to ANA in the first half of 2008, a delivery moved back to the fourth-quarter of 2010 because production problems forced the company to announce a series of delays.
The delays contributed to a US$1.6-billion loss in the third quarter and Boeing has slashed this year's earnings guidance by more than a third.
During this time, Boeing's main competitor has also been raising the bar, said Aboulafia.
While the company "was messing around with the 787, Airbus really caught up with the A350 XWB," he said, referring to the European firm's next generation of aircraft, which also uses composite materials in its design.
AFP
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