NZ government expected to agree on Trans-Tasman bubble start by mid-April

Most likely, however, it is envisaged that unless a Kiwi or an Australian is caught in the centre of a cluster, there would be a three-day shutdown while the situation was assessed, and then travel could potentially resume for most people.

Events appear to have moved quickly since February.

As Stuff reported last month, officials had concluded 11 rounds of talks with Australia over a joint decision-making framework that would govern the bubble. Under this arrangement there was going to be an agreed set of circumstances that would govern so-called "green zone" travel rules between the two countries.

For example, the August COVID outbreak and the Papatoetoe cluster in Auckland would have closed off green zone travel, while the other mini-clusters that have been contained, would not have stopped travel.

But after the Australian Government, which opened its border to New Zealand late last year, suddenly suspended quarantine-free travel after the Northland case of COVID-19, the Australian Government apparently cooled on the idea of having a joint set of rules. At the time, that move blind-sided New Zealand and angered Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

We now know that that was because an agreed arrangement had almost been finalised in which such unilateral action would not have been possible.

As February progressed, the Australian Government became more favourable towards each country effectively having the right to suspend travel as they see fit (either out of political expediency or on the advice of its health authorities).

So since February, the New Zealand government has changed tack and started working on a new, unilateral arrangement, which since December has been mostly driven by Chris Hipkins, New Zealand's Minister for COVID-19 Response.

Getting a bubble up and running would be a major boost for the NZ government as it has come in for criticism for being too slow in opening up New Zealand to the world. Their National Party has made a big issue of getting the bubble started immediately over the past few weeks, but government sources think that the opposition is running ahead of public sentiment, which wants travel but trusts the government to deliver it safely.

That said, the view within government is also that the bubble will never be perfect to start with and that, as with the rest of its COVID-19 response, some finessing and changes will be required. But, at some point, a decision has to be made.

As previously reported by Stuff, Scott Morrison blindsided his own ministers when he announced earlier in the year that Australia would roll out vaccinations by the end of February. Much of Morrison's public response to COVID-19 appears to be driven more by political pressure than much else.

Because the bubble will now be a unilateral arrangement, Australia will have to remove its ban on Australians travelling to New Zealand, in order to make it reciprocal.

Currently, the only Australian states allowing quarantine-free travel from New Zealand are Victoria and NSW.

But it should be expected that once the Australian Federal Government – which governs the national border and aviation laws – opens the border up that most states will fall into line. Queensland in particular is heavily reliant on the tourist dollar.

For most New Zealanders who have both friends and relatives in Australia and vice-versa, this will be personally exciting news. For tourism operators it could be some small ray of light at the end of a very tough year of closed borders. For both governments, it will be a big marker of progress in what will be a year-long grind out of this pandemic.

Stuff.co.nz

See also: Overseas travel won't happen unless Australians demand it

See also: Why I'm not getting excited about a Singapore travel bubble