Previous crises in tourism: The coronavirus is the fourth major catastrophe for travel

Commercial travel, which was still in its relative infancy at the time, came to a halt for large parts of the world between 1939 and 1945, though this was not the thing that shook up travel and tourism in the years that followed.

Through the history of aviation, military aircraft and engines have always paved the way and commercial aviation has swiftly followed in the slipstream. In the late Thirties and early Forties, Britain and Germany scrambled to develop the jet engine; the first ever fighter jet, the German Messerschmitt Me 262, took flight in 1940 and the British Gloster Meteor made its first flight in 1943.

In the years after the war ended, all of the major powers were developing jet engine technology, and we were soon boarding jetliners to far-flung places. The first commercial jetliner was the British de Havilland Comet, developed at Hatfield Aerodrome in Hertfordshire, which entered service in 1952. However, after three high-profile disasters, another model, the Boeing 707, took its place and became the market leader.

And so the "jet set" was born, and a new, slightly odd phenomenon that humans had never felt before was also born: "jet lag". In the decades after, aviation boomed and has become affordable for the masses, to the point where 39 million flights took off in 2019. There's an argument the Jet Age would have happened, at some point, anyway. What's almost certain, however, is that the technological advancements made during World War Two made it happen sooner.

9/11 – the dawning of the security age

When two aircraft flew into the World Trade Centre in New York City, one flew into the Pentagon, and United Flight 93 was hijacked and brought down southeast of Pittsburgh, all of the 4,000 planes flying above American airspace were ordered to land as soon as possible. Civilian air traffic wouldn't resume for another three days, although the impact the 9/11 attacks had on air travel, globally, lives on to this day.

It's easy to forget just how much aviation security has changed since that day. Prior to the event, security checks did exist in some countries – rolled out after a series of aircraft hijackings in the Sixties and Seventies – although they were nothing compared to what we go through now.

Today we have to remove our shoes and belts at security, only bring liquids of 100ml or less on board, and in some airports are required to go through full body X-Ray scanning machines to detect anything hidden beneath our clothing. Frisking is a perfectly normal experience in airports, these days. Understandably, some of the world's tightest checks are now in the US, where the Transportation Security Administration, born in the wake of 9/11, has since spent $56.8 billion on aviation security.

The financial crash – a catalyst for change

When the financial crisis hit in 2007–2008, many industries were ravaged as the world entered a global recession – travel was no exception. The immediate impact was that people around the world tightened their purse strings; we delayed or cancelled our holiday plans and companies cut corporate spending on things like business travel.

With this new mindset, in the wake of the crisis travellers became more frugal and focused on experiences rather than lavish material goods. So the desire to travel resumed, and the stage was set for a little disruptor called Airbnb to launch in late 2008. Holiday lettings existed before Airbnb, of course, but largely offline and certainly not grouped together on one platform. By 2017, Airbnb was bigger than the world's top five hotel firms combined, and today has over five million online listings and makes $2.6 billion in gross bookings. Following its lead, a number of digitally led start-ups were born in the wake of the financial crisis and continue to disrupt the travel market – just look at how Uber, Monzo and Whatsapp have changed the way we travel, spend and communicate on holidays.

Another trend following the financial crisis was the boom of the outbound traveller from emerging markets. In 1997, people from developing countries made up 21 per cent of international travel arrivals. By 2009 that was 31 per cent. In just five years after the financial crash, by 2014 the number was up to 41 per cent. We can view the financial crash perhaps not as the cause, but certainly as the catalyst for accelerated change in the travel industry in the last decade.

Coronavirus – what happens next?

Few industries have been hit as harder, and faster, by the coronavirus pandemic than travel. The scale is quite tough to comprehend, and makes sad reading for anyone in the industry: the WTTC predicts a global loss of 75 million jobs and over $2 trillion in revenue. We are seeing this happen in real time. On April 2, British Airways suspended over 30,000 of its staff, the same day that Heathrow closed a runway. From agents to guidebook publishers, travel businesses face a very difficult time ahead.

Julia Lo Bue-Said, CEO of The Advantage Travel Partnership, says: "We are now beginning to realise that travel is no longer the right of the fortunate but a luxury to be protected and celebrated. We have had to stop and appreciate what it's like to leave our homes freely, let alone jump on a plane for a spontaneous weekend break to Madrid.

"Once we begin the slow re-entry into 'normal' life we will be changed travellers with different priorities. Whilst there will no doubt be a desire to travel in many of us, we will, I suspect, remain cautious and our choices will be influenced by different factors."

So what big changes could we be looking at, once the pandemic ends and the world gets back to normal?

One area that is ripe for disruption is business travel. Companies around the world are being forced into new ways of digital working and conferencing, and after months of working this way processes will surely get sleeker and become the new normal. After the pandemic, many businesses will be looking for ways to cut costs without losing staff; will there be any justification for an expensive return business class flight from London to New York to attend a meeting or conference, in the post-Covid world?

The cruise industry could be one of the hardest hit areas of travel. Early on in the crisis, the Diamond Princess ship had the highest number of coronavirus cases outside of China, culminating in 712 passengers testing positive and 11 deaths. More recently, the MS Zaandem has been stranded off the shores of Florida after struggling to find anywhere else to dock in South America, with 9 confirmed cases on board and 2 deaths. These stories will likely linger in the memory for anyone tempted to book a cruise holiday in the coming months and years.

One likely change will be the change in how we approach hygiene on our travels. In the same way that 9/11 led to a new era of security processes, it is plausible that cruises and airlines will introduce more stringent processes to ensure passengers are healthy and doing everything they can to prevent the spread of disease. Is it ridiculous to imagine all air passengers will have their temperatures checked before boarding a flight, as is currently happening on arrival in many airports, and either refused boarding or put in a particular seat on the plane if they are unwell? One thing for sure is that we will be seeing a lot more face masks and hand sanitizers on our travels from now on.

We could well see some other behavioural shifts, after coronavirus. With millions of holidaymakers having to cancel plans and request refunds for trips booked long in advance, could we see a rise in last-minute holidays? Quite possibly. And with stories of so many people stranded overseas, I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw a rise in close-to-home holidays after this is all over, with people still skittish about the possibility of a sudden return of coronavirus. More likely these will be short-term shifts, as people adjust to normality and grow in confidence over time.

Travellers who do go overseas will need to check their insurance policy closely, as many companies have redrawn their terms and conditions in the wake of coronavirus, coming with more limitations about what is covered in future pandemics. "Covid-19 has turned the industry on its head," said PK Rao, president of insurance company INF Visitor Care. "There will be major changes pertaining to the underwriting and policies written for travel plans."

Are there any positive changes afoot? The big immediate one is the positive environmental impact of coronavirus. In the last three months, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions have fallen across the world as countries enter lockdown and transport grinds to a halt. Satellite images have shown nitrogen dioxide emissions fading away over Italy, Spain and parts of the UK since the countries entered lockdown. Many people who were reducing flying didn't realise it would be quite so easy.

The question of whether this pause in emissions we're seeing now will last comes down to whether we will keep travelling, and particularly flying, at the scale we did before coronavirus, or if the whole ordeal will shift our behaviours and actually keep us closer to home.

It seems fanciful to imagine a world with decreased appetite for flying. However, a 2018 study from Zurich University found that when people were unable to drive, but were given a free e-bike instead, they drove much less when they eventually got the car back. A similar study from Kyoto University found that when a motorway closed, forcing drivers to use public transport, the same thing happened – committed drivers soon became dedicated public transport users.

We have been stripped of the luxury of flying, or indeed catching trains or driving off on a road trip, and are being forced to find other sources of inspiration and escapism. Rather than yearning for a far-away beach, many are yearning for simpler pleasures like pub gardens and visits to see our beloved families. So could we see a drop in appetite for international travel, as we take our proverbial e-bikes to the pub garden?

It seems unlikely. While we may see a slow-down in bookings into 2021, as coronavirus looms large in the memory, and domestic travel will cut muster in the short term, I have no doubt that we will continue travelling the wider world in time. The resuming of air traffic may not be the best news from an environmental standpoint, although it will be welcomed by the millions of families around the world whose livelihoods are dependent on tourism, and will bring great relief to those economies that rely on the tourist dollar.

We will fly off to exotic climes one day, soon enough. But if history is anything to go by, we will be looking down on a very different world.

The Telegraph, London

See also: How we will know when it's OK to travel again

See also: The five lessons every traveller must learn from the pandemic