The future of travel: What travel will look like in 2037

However, while space tourism will dominate the headlines in years to come, availability doesn't necessarily make it a good idea, particularly given the carbon emissions necessary to fire passengers into the great unknown. The democratisation of space travel, as opposed to air travel, is unlikely.

"Our trips are the opposite of a one-off bucket-list blast-off and our priority in the next 15 years is making travel more sustainable so that we protect the people and the places on Earth for the future," says James Thornton, the chief executive of the global adventure specialists Intrepid Travel.

"Personally, I don't see the appeal of going into space, as there are so many incredible places to visit on the seven continents we have here."

ANTARCTICA

Here's a supremely challenging one. This is a destination that already figures prominently on many a bucket list, an isolated part of the world that nevertheless was gaining huge popularity before the pandemic, with an increase in visitor numbers over the last 30 years of more than 1000 per cent.

More and more expedition vessels are being introduced, offering a range of experiences, and with flights from Punta Arenas to King George Island, just 120 kilometres from the Antarctic Peninsula, already being offered by Silversea Cruises, the continent is only going to become more accessible. Direct flights from Australia are a distinct possibility.

And yet, who is managing this influx of visitors? It's overseen not by a government-led authority but by the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators. The organisation has so far been successful in managing travel in Antarctica; however, vastly increased numbers will place it under pressure.

BALI

A host of other island destinations are on our doorstep that tourism industry strategists hope we will come to know and love in the next 15 years.

The Indonesian government, in its attempts to encourage tourists to consider destinations beyond Bali and thereby spread the resulting economic benefit, is developing what it's dubbed the "new Balis", which could see Australian travellers heading to 10 new destinations such as Likupang in North Sulawesi and Mandalika on Lombok.

However, the classic Bali will surely always exist and entice us with its reputation as an affordable and accessible south-east Asian beach paradise. But what will that enduring popularity do to the island?

How will the Balinese, and for that matter Indonesians as a whole, balance the already excessive development and environmental pressures with its laid-back, spiritual soul that has such a firm place in travellers' hearts?

SAUDI ARABIA

As its oil reserves inevitably deplete, and with the world eschewing harmful fossil fuels, a modernising and supposedly moderating Saudi Arabia, like Dubai and Abu Dhabi before it, has identified foreign tourists as a source of future wealth.

It's stridently adopting an "if you build it, they will come" approach with its new Neom project, a hyper-modern desert city that is being built from scratch at a cost of more than $700 billion. But if Neom is to fly, so too may the Saudis.

"Is Saudi also going to become a major airline player?" asks Thornton. "Obviously, a lot of Dubai's success was down to Emirates Airlines as well as Abu Dhabi with Etihad. Maybe Neom will have the impact that Dubai had 15 years ago.

"But the way Saudi Arabia presents on the world stage will also likely need to change. The United Arab Emirates is seen as more moderate and if Saudi is going to become a tourism destination of size, it's going to need to adopt more moderate actions."

It's a significant caveat. This is a country with an appalling human rights record, and one responsible for the state-sanctioned killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Even with a more moderate approach, how long will that image live in travellers' memories?

VENICE

How Venice, as a world capital of overtourism, manages its popularity will define the travel over the coming decade-and-a-half. La Serenissima remains the perfectly imperfect, ongoing example of what a destination that's slowly being loved to death can look like.

Here's a place that's been so overrun by visitors, particularly by low-spending day tourists, that the city as a living, breathing, organically functioning entity is in danger of disappearing.

To belatedly address the problem, Venetian authorities have introduced a daily tax for tourists with G Adventures chief executive Bruce Poon Tip viewing the measure as merely the beginning, with implications for other over-touristed cities such as Dubrovnik and Amsterdam.

The risk is that they will no longer be seen by the world as tourist destinations but more like "managed amusement parks".

"The world will start looking at these kinds of cities really differently," Poon Tip says. "You'll buy a ticket to get into Venice and you'll buy a ticket to get into Kyoto. Because cultural heritage preservation will be a burning topic [for travel] in the next decade. Such cities cannot support infinite growth."

CHINA

Not so long ago, global research company Euromonitor International predicted that by 2030, the world's number one tourist destination would be China. But that was in 2018. Since then a pandemic has arrived and China, with its pursuit of zero COVID-19, has slammed its doors to the world.

Will that forecast ever be fulfilled? It's entirely up to China itself as hard borders and geopolitical tussles continue to portray it as a global outsider. But with a changed world outlook this country can be a major tourist destination once again.

Extraordinarily popular before the pandemic, its relative proximity to Australia, its affordability and its vast breadth of cultural and natural experiences would prove too great to ignore.

"At the moment it seems hard to imagine travel is going to return to China any time soon," says Thornton. "And to be honest, Intrepid's numbers in China had been dropping ever since the Beijing Olympics [in 2008]. But we remain hopeful that we can eventually get back there as there are some wonderful experiences in China."

NEW ZEALAND

One of our closest neighbours has long led the world in terms of tourism marketing and innovation with its enduring "100% pure New Zealand" campaign.

That carefully-nurtured image was boosted worldwide thanks to The Hobbit and Lord of the Rings. The question over the next 15 years, however, is how will the home of Maori culture, of alpine resorts and wineries and laidback good times deal with its popularity?

Already plans, influenced by the pandemic, are in place to protect popular scenic gems such as Milford Sound from over-tourism, and other destinations could follow suit, possibly transforming New Zealand from a global leader in attracting tourists to a global leader in managing fewer of them.

It was reported last week that New Zealand's tourism minister Stuart Nash would continue to focus on "high-quality" big spenders rather than visitors who "travel around our country on $10 a day eating two-minute noodles".

AUSTRALIA

It should come as no surprise that one of the leading destinations from now right through to 2037, particularly for Australians, will be right here at home.

With sustainability becoming increasingly important to travellers, and an issue embraced by a new federal government, holidays at home (utilising short-range electric planes, and maybe, if we dare to dream, even high-speed rail) are likely to be more popular than ever.

"We know Australia has been celebrated worldwide as a safe and aspirational destination for international travellers," says Leanne Harwood, of IHG Hotels & Resorts in Japan, Australasia and the Pacific.

"As travel resumes to normal I imagine it will remain a top destination for all traveller tastes, from luxury resorts to regional towns, multi-generational stays and solo travel."

UKRAINE

The war in Ukraine will end, eventually. We only hope sooner rather than later. Depending on the outcome of the conflict, the world's goodwill towards this country could see it becoming a big destination over the next 15 years.

There is a precedent in that throughout recent history, post-war countries have gained rapid popularity among travellers: the likes of Cambodia, Peru, Colombia and even Berlin have shown that Ukraine could benefit from the influx of tourism dollars soon after peace is hopefully achieved.

"In the next 15 years I hope the countries that are currently closed to tourism – Ukraine, but also Syria, Myanmar – I would love to think that they're stable and prosperous and that local people can benefit from tourism," says Thornton.

JAPAN

Japan wasn't always wildly popular as it had become before the pandemic. In 2009, there were fewer than 4.5 million visits from overseas. But cast forward just 10 years later and, extraordinarily, there were almost 32 million visits to Japan.

Before the pandemic this country was on an tourism high and there's every reason to believe that it will be once again. A circumspect Japan is currently still closed to independent foreign tourists but, in contrast to increasingly insular China, that won't last indefinitely.

The country's irresistibility, thanks to its ski resorts, its distinctive cuisine, its history, its art and design scene and its pure wonder, will see it continue to attract visitors from Australia and the rest of the world.

NEW YORK AND LONDON

By late 2025, Qantas plans to offer direct flights from Sydney and Melbourne to both London and New York, representing an absolute game-changer for east coast travellers (not to mention the fact Air New Zealand will introduce direct Auckland to New York flights later this year).

These two destinations are already incredibly popular among Australians and will prove even more so with direct access.

"If we have anything to go by in the last couple of months, actually getting to the destination has been a real pain point for travellers," says The Travel Corporation's Ambler.

"Yet it can only get better, it can only get more streamlined. If we take out two stops, three stops, and additional opportunities for baggage to get lost, we're going to see more and more people feel comfortable travelling."

FRANCE

France remains the world's most popular tourist destination, a country with which travellers have long been obsessed and will always return to a glorious nation offering city escapes, beachside idyll, food, wine, and a certain je ne sais quoi.

France may eventually be toppled from its position atop the list but this country, along with hugely popular neighbours such as Italy and Spain, will long be desirable for Australians, as we've witnessed from the rush to Europe this northern summer.

"Iconic Europe will always have a special place as a destination for tourists," says Ambler. "After the pandemic everyone is leaning into Europe. It will always be huge because it is so vast and so culturally rich."

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa is a country with which Australia already enjoys close ties, a country we already have direct flight access to, a country with so much to offer travellers.

This is one of the world's great destinations, with attractions both natural and cultural. It also, however, suffers from seemingly intractable social, political and economic instability.

If that can be righted, together with an increase in flight connections, South Africa - and for that matter Africa as a whole - could be a winner over the next decade and a half.

"I think there's a lot of opportunity for growth in parts of Africa, particularly for Australian travellers, and particularly if we have more streamlined flight paths," says Ambler while Poon Tip, CEO of G Adventures, agrees: "You're going to see a big increase in interest in Africa."

MEXICO

Back in 2018, research group Euromonitor International predicted the most visited countries in 2030. Most were fairly obvious: France and the US faring well, Spain and Thailand too. China, as previously mentioned, at the top.

One of the most surprising, however, was number nine: Mexico. This is a destination that is yet to achieve mainstream appeal with Australian travellers, perhaps partly because of perceived risk.

If the country can maintain stability over the next 15 years and continue to offer its incredible mix of culture, history, natural attractions, and its sense of just pure enjoyment, we could well see the Euromonitor prediction come true.

VIETNAM

Here's another country that had been steadily growing in importance on the global tourism scene before COVID-19, with more than 18 million visitors in 2019, well above the average for south-east Asia – and there's every reason to believe that by 2037, Vietnam will be even more popular.

What's not to love, aside from the fact that it is an authoritarian state? This is a country with everything from great food and modern culture to historic sites and incredible affordability.

Vietnam already has beach resorts for those who are so inclined; it has luxury city hotels; it has an extensive network of budget-friendly hostels and guesthouses. Those options are only going to expand and improve if the Vietnamese can achieve change and growth in a more sustainable way than other parts of south-east Asia.

TEN WAYS TRAVEL WILL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE

STRIVING FOR SUSTAINABILITY

"There's already been a clear shift towards sustainable experiences," says James Thornton, from Intrepid, "because the world is facing a climate crisis, and destinations are very much on the front line, plus we are seeing more and more press coverage, I believe sustainable travel is going to grow exponentially." Leanne Harwood from IHG agrees: "In a recent global survey, 57 per cent of our travellers said they care more about contributing to their local communities and the planet while travelling than they did 10 years ago – this figure will very likely double or triple in the next decade."

STAYING WELL

As troubling as it is to consider, the COVID-19 pandemic could be just one of several pandemics we will have to deal with in coming years (monkeypox has already been declared a pandemic in its own right). Research released in 2021 predicts most people are likely to experience an extreme pandemic such as COVID-19 in their lifetime – and the next one could come soon, and be deadlier. We only have to hope the world has learned from its dealings with the current crisis.

TURNING ON TO ELECTRIC PROPULSION

The future of travel is electric. "You'll see sustainable fuel options," says Thornton. "Almost universally if you're travelling in a vehicle it will be an electric vehicle." Ambler agrees: "We are doing a lot with our coaches already. Contiki has a Euro VI engine – there's an amazing stat, when you're driving a Contiki coach through the streets of Rome, it's actually leaving the air cleaner than it was before. Electric coaches are very achievable, I think we will see that. The big question is around electric planes."

HOLIDAYING LONGER AND DEEPER

G Adventure's Bruce Poon Tip says longer journeys will become the norm for travellers over the next 15 years. "I think people will travel longer, and deeper. When people start matching their [sustainability] values with their travel … I don't think it will stop people travelling but travel will be more meaningful to people, and destinations will be more relevant. People will travel longer, but less. And go deeper into destinations, stay longer. That's the best thing that could happen."

EMBRACING VIRTUAL REALITY

"We may see the popularity of the metaverse influence how guests are engaging with hotels and locations ahead of booking," says Leanne Harwood. "For example, using 3D virtual tours of hotels and resorts to make decisions about their room type or experiences." Toni Ambler from the Travel Corporation sees this as an exciting new area. "Up until this point it's been quite gimmicky for the travel industry, putting on a VR headset at a trade fair or something. But this is going to be a big part of e-commerce, and I'm really interested to see what that means for travel."

PUTTING SECONDARY DESTINATIONS FIRST

As over-tourism impacts the likes of Venice, Amsterdam, Kyoto and more, the key to successful travel could be to travel to "secondary destinations", places that offer similar experiences but with smaller and less harmful crowds. "We may see emerging destinations begin to gain popularity," says Harwood, "as travellers seek new, or newer, experiences – such as resort locations in Guam and Saipan, and destinations outside of "tier one" cities, such as Japanese onsens in Beppu or immersive cultural towns such as Inuyama."

SOCIAL MEDIA POWERS ON

You think social media is a dominant force in travel now? That people already make their travel choices based on where their friends have been, and what content they can gather? Wait another 15 years – it's only going to become more powerful, as younger generations become the bulk of the travelling populace. "Our data shows 40 per cent of millennials wouldn't travel to a place if they couldn't put it on Instagram," says Poon Tip. "It's a change in thinking."

THE RISE OF THE DIGITAL NOMAD

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that many of us can actually do our jobs from anywhere, rather than go into the office every day, which means the chance to combine work and travel will become more commonplace over the next 15 years. "One thing you might start to see because of the climate crisis is that when you travel, you may elect to go for extended periods," says Thornton. "And because of the hybrid working environment, you can do that. That work and travel hybrid will increase a lot."

TECH, TECH, TECH

Yes, obviously modern technology will play a big part in the travel experience by 2037. The question is, how will things change? "Facial recognition – do we do away with passports?" asks Ambler. "Do you use 3D printers for your holiday essentials; do you have voice search for your packing lists; will TikTok be the new search engine instead of Google when we start living in this visual world and we want to see, not just read before we buy?"

BACK TO NATURE

We may have tech at our fingertips, but according to Thornton, we'll also be searching for something more natural and something more affordable. "You do wonder if global inflation will change the way people are able to travel. I think you'll see people doing more nature-based tourism and active type trips. Nature-based tourism links to camping and more budget-friendly experiences and more regenerative activities that provide great ways to disconnect."

MORE ON THE FUTURE OF TRAVEL

This is what the (near) future of air travel looks like

Thirteen simple ways to be a better traveller

Good riddance: Eight things in travel we want to disappear

How we'll be checking into hotels in the near future

Where to now? The future for cruising

Foodie travel shows no signs of slowing down