By Brian Johnston
Virgin Voyages' Scarlet Lady.
Back in the late 1990s travel visionaries promoted the concept of the "Freedom Ship", a floating colony of 80,000 people that would gently drift around the world. So far we've seen no sign of it. Now the prophets of cruise are fixated with USVs (unmanned surface vehicles).
Will passengers appreciate a crewless cruise ship? Maybe, maybe not. Then again, the first autonomous cargo ships are already reality, so watch this space.
Whatever is more certain for the future of a cruising industry that is still navigating a way through and out of a pandemic, is that existing trends will intensify and become more widespread.
Not that that means little or no excitement On the contrary, expect robots, glowing cabin walls, weird ways to wellness and ships running on inventive alternative fuels. Here is a snapshot of where we believe cruising will head in the next decade and a half.
FUELLING CHANGE
No trend is more welcome than the move towards greener, leaner cruise ships. This isn't new. Expeditions ships in particular have pioneered sustainability, but mainstream cruise lines have now joined in.
Cruise lines are investing billions of dollars in ships that offer greater efficiency and achieve significant emission reductions, Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), reports. There's an increasing use of low-emission transitional fuels like LNG and technologies like exhaust-gas cleaning systems and hybrid propulsion.
Earlier this year CLIA announced a commitment by its ocean-going members to pursue net-zero carbon cruising by 2050, although this relies on significant engineering breakthroughs and regulatory approvals.
Over half of new ships being built, including the biggest such as Royal Caribbean's Icon of the Seas, will use LNG as their primary fuel. LNG is currently the eco-friendliest marine fuel available, reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by 20 per cent, nitrogen oxides by 85 per cent and sulphur oxides entirely.
Nevertheless, LNG is still a fossil-fuel pollutant. Bio-LNG and synthetic LNG might be next. MSC hopes to develop a world-first hydrogen-powered cruise ship, and already all-electric battery-powered ferries operate, so advanced zero-emission cruise ships might well appear soon.
Most new and upgraded ships now have advanced wastewater-treatment and exhaust-gas-cleaning systems. CLIA says over 80 per cent of its fleet will have both by 2027. Solar panels on ships are becoming more common, as is the use of shore-side electricity, which allows ships' engines to be switched off while berthed.
Other technologies being developed are low-friction hull designs and coatings, which reduce power use.
LOCAL TIME
For years the demand for smaller ships and remote locations has surged. This will only continue thanks to the COVID-19-era commitment to social distancing and increased concern over cruise issues such as environmental impact and overcrowding in ports.
The result will be the emergence of less conventional shore excursions that explore cultures and cuisines, offer interaction with local artisans and experts and which help support communities.
There are now many eco-options too that focus on places such as national parks, biodynamic vineyards, carbon-free distilleries, hydroponic farms and wildlife rehabilitation centres. Oceania recently rolled out a range of "Go Green" excursions, Regent Seven Seas "Eco-Connect" tours and Norwegian Cruise Line expanded "Go Local" experiences.
A bonus for cruise lines is the chance to forge better relationships in ports where residents often grumble about cruise-passenger overcrowding and underspending.
Over the next decade cruise lines will work more actively with local communities in places such as Dubrovnik to find solutions to sustainable tourism management.
However, more destinations could ban megaships entirely, as Venice and French Polynesia recently did. Tides keep turning, but in which direction is often unclear.
AN AGEING FLEET
Despite longer life expectancies and healthier lifestyles of its core passengers, cruising's traditionally mature demographic is unlikely to be replaced in the same numbers.
Inevitably, cruise lines are striving to appeal to a younger market with the most blatant example being the recently launched Virgin Voyages, whose adults-only ships offer formal "Scarlet Night" parties, DJ events and even tattoo parlours.
Nearly every cruise line, though, is developing a younger and trendier profile. Designer cabins now resemble boutique-hotel rooms with the trend translating to luxury "ship-within-a-ship" zones offering exclusive benefits. Spas are expanding to titillate with charcoal saunas, infrared rooms, acoustic therapy and zero-gravity massages.
Indeed, where you'll notice the biggest difference will be in your cabin, especially on larger ships. Same-same cabins are a problem when personalisation is the travel trend and with the occupants increasingly younger, more tech-trained and with shorter attention spans.
New technology is riding to the renovation rescue. Cabins are getting more interactive and incorporating virtual realities. Royal Caribbean is experimenting with video walls that provide personalised "views" or artworks.
Virtual portholes on Disney inside cabins already play real-time video to provide the illusion of windows.
More, much more, is coming. Your cabin walls will project interactive guest directories and allow you to access gaming. Voice commands will open your cabin door, adjust the lighting and make bookings. And in excellent news, you'll never be baffled or burned by shower controls again: the shower will learn your preferences and gush water the way you want it.
THE IMPERSONAL TOUCH
Too bad if you like the human touch. Technology that phases out the need for humans was introduced on big ships before the pandemic with its touchless advantages accelerating its adoption.
Cruise ships risk becoming a little soulless though perhaps not to young passengers conditioned to interacting with gadgets.
Soon, as in airports, you'll check in using a console. Your suitcase could be delivered to your cabin in a robotic cart. The traditional safety muster will be done online: no more joshing with fellow passengers in life jackets. Facial recognition will speed up embarkation and disembarkation in ports.
Robots are coming. Costa Cruises already has them to aid with inquiries, and Royal Caribbean has robot bartenders. Robots will soon be doing the vacuuming and other housekeeping tasks.
You'll be using apps, touchscreens or company-issued medallions or bracelets for transactions. They're already operating on mega ships and their range of functions will only widen. You'll be making your own restaurant and excursion bookings, reading menus from QR codes, and tracking your children via GPS.
The cruise line will be tracking you too, though cruise companies frame their knowledge of your preferences as a bonus: you'll no longer have to tell the waiter how you want your steak, and you'll be recommended excursions relevant to your interests.
Scratchy, expensive ship Wi-Fi will be gone, because you can't support such technologies without flawless connectivity. Cruise companies are also waking up to the lucrative conference market, and to digital nomads. The downside of excellent Wi-Fi at sea will be the chance of sharing your cruise with a convention of Dallas dentists.
FIVE MORE WAYS CRUISE CRUISING IS CHANGING
POLE POSITIONS
Cruising is traditionally a warm-climate holiday but demand for Alaska, the Arctic, Antarctic and chilly destinations such as Iceland and Patagonia is soaring. New regions are becoming accessible as ice melts; this February a Ponant cruise set a new record by reaching the navigable latitude closest to the South Pole.
YOUNG BLOOD
The average age of cruise passengers has been falling and is now 47. It will continue to decline. Millennials have emerged as the surveyed group most enthusiastic about cruising in future, and cruise lines actively target younger demographics, including couples with children and multigenerational families.
EASTERN PROMISE
Asia will be the cruise hotspot providing it keeps a lid on COVID-19. Western brands are likely to homeport ships in Shanghai and Tianjin again. Asia has already overtaken the Mediterranean into second spot on the list of most-visited cruise regions; the Caribbean is first thanks to its proximity to the US.
BRAND EXERCISE
Celebrity chefs once provided cruising's only brands. Now branding is commonplace. From Swarovski to Tag Heuer and Dom Perignon, luxury brands will increasingly be everywhere on board. Branded spas, dining outlets and cafes, and kids' clubs and entertainment will become the norm.
TERMINAL VELOCITY
Cruise terminals will no longer be plain spaces merely for checking in. Like train stations they're being integrated into mixed-use projects and emerging with conference centres, shopping malls, restaurants and even museums. Seattle, Istanbul and Nassau are just-opened examples: expect more.
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