How deep is your pool? The only Rugby World Cup guide you’ll need

The Rugby World Cup was once a predictable affair, where the same big teams would cruise past the minnows in the pool stages before the serious business began in the quarter-finals.

There have been upsets over the decades, of course, and even some shock qualifiers for the play-offs.

But this year, the Rugby World Cup shapes as the most open tournament ever, with eligibility changes and experience in top-level domestic competitions lifting the quality of several teams, notably from the Pacific Islands. Celtic nations like Ireland and Scotland are ascendant, and at the same time, historic heavyweights like England, Australia and Wales are struggling after 11th-hour coach changes.

So who’s who in the zoo? And how will each pool pan out? Let’s take a look at all the groups ... and make some fearless predictions.

Pool A

• New Zealand (World rank 4)
• France (3)
• Italy (13)
• Uruguay (17)
• Namibia (21)

Form guide: In 2019, pool B was so hot the eventual champions South Africa lost a game to New Zealand, and then went on to win the whole thing. Some believe history may repeat in 2023, with the top two favourites for the tournament – hosts France and the All Blacks – both in pool A. Behind world No.1 Ireland, France and New Zealand were trading places in spots 2 and 3 for most of the year and the pair are heading into the tournament as the bookies’ top two picks.

The All Blacks put a scratchy 2022 behind them with a comfortable Rugby Championship victory, although confidence gained in an impressive win over the Springboks in the tournament was drained by a record defeat against South Africa at Twickenham in August. Time will tell if it was a bad day or a portent of more strife.

The French have only lost two games of their last 17 Tests since the start of 2022 and boast a win over the All Blacks in that time. The recent loss of five-eighth Romain Ntamack will hurt France, however, and controversy about alleged racist violent acts by one of their locks has blown up, too. Italy are the best of the rest but won’t come within cooee of the top two.

The crunch game: The opening game of the tournament is France v New Zealand in Paris on Saturday, September 9 (AEST). It will be an epic contest that effectively decides the pool on night one.

The star: France have enjoyed many gifted No.9s, including their current coach Fabien Galthie, but the incumbent Antoine Dupont has the potential to change a game by himself.

His passing and kicking are exquisite and he also possesses incredible raw strength that allows him to play as a third breakaway.

One to watch: Italy’s Ange Capuozzo is a wonderfully talented fullback with the ball in hand and regularly dances through defences. Easily one of Italy’s best players in many years and plying his trade at the highest level for his club Toulouse.

Fast Fact: Namibia have the dubious honour of the worst World Cup defeat ever, thrashed 142-0 by Australia in 2003.

Qualifier prediction (Winner/Runner-up):
Iain Payten: New Zealand, France
Tom Decent: France, New Zealand
Paul Cully: France, New Zealand
Jonathan Drennan: France, New Zealand

Pool B

• South Africa (2)
• Ireland (1)
• Scotland (5)
• Tonga (15)
• Romania (19)

Form guide: Regarded as the pool of death by most pundits. By virtue of the much criticised (and soon-to-be changed) policy of World Rugby to conduct the draw in 2020 – based on the rankings at the time – three sides in the pool are currently in the top five sides in the world: Ireland, South Africa and Scotland. One of them will not play in the quarter-finals.

The Scots were ranked No.8 in the world when the draw was done but have been impressive in the years since, and they knocked off France in early August to show they have the capacity to beat the best sides. Ireland have been No.1 for several years, and deservedly so. Their ruthless efficiency has seen them win 29 of 35 games in the last four years, including a series win in New Zealand. The Springboks are three-time winners and defending champions, and have a strong track record of tournament rugby. Tonga are a potential dark horse for an upset win, with eligibility changes strengthening their team immensely, including ex-Wallaby Adam Coleman and several All Blacks. Israel Folau withdrew due to injury.

The crunch game: South Africa v Scotland, Monday September 11 (AEST). The Scots’ best chance of making it into the top two is knocking over a slow-starting Springboks on day two in the tournament, and then holding on for dear life.

The star: At 38, time is running out for Ireland’s five-eighth Johnny Sexton to make a serious impression at a World Cup for his country. Ireland have never ventured beyond the quarter-finals, and a fit Sexton is essential if they are to progress. His body is a little slower, but his brain remains as sharp as ever. An on-field coach who is critical to Ireland’s success.

One to watch: Uruguay’s scrum-half Santiago Arata is a joy to watch with his regular sniping runs. Blindside breakaways beware. He is a key figure for Castres in France’s Top 14 competition and will be keen to upset the form book with his frenetic play.

Fast Fact: Romania only booked their tickets for this World Cup after Spain were disqualified for fielding an ineligible player in qualifying.

Qualifier prediction (Winner/Runner-up):

Payten: Ireland, South Africa
Decent: South Africa, Ireland
Cully: South Africa, Ireland
Drennan: South Africa, Ireland

Pool C

• Fiji (7)
• Australia (9)
• Wales (10)
• Georgia (11)
• Portugal (16)

Form guide: Wales, Australia and Fiji will do battle in the same pool for the third time in as many World Cups, after jousting in 2019 and 2015. Many regard pool C as a ‘friendly’ draw for the Wallabies, and like in 2019, victory over Fiji should see Australia bank a quarter-final berth. But that’s dangerously premature thinking, with Fiji shaping as a genuinely threatening rival in recent months under coach Simon Raiwalui, and with the benefits of the Drua’s giant-killing addition to Super Rugby becoming evident. Fiji go into the tournament as the pool’s highest ranked team, courtesy of an historic win over England at Twickenham in August.

Wales are similar to the Wallabies, in the sense they’re a team who are rebuilding after changing their coach late last year, back to Warren Gatland.

The Welsh run hot and cold but have the ability to pull it together at the right time. They downed England in August and famously turned the tables in Tokyo on Australia in 2019, when Michael Cheika’s men were expected to win.

Georgia are another team that can’t be easily discounted. The Wallabies got home in 2019 but any set-piece failure will be costly. A few months ago most saw this as a straightforward pool but Fiji’s emergence has changed all that. Don’t discount Wales, Fiji and Australia picking up a win and a loss each from their round-robin, and points differential coming into play.

The crunch game: Australia v Fiji, Monday September 17 (AEST). Set to be crucial for both sides in securing a spot in the quarter-finals. If Fiji win, it’ll go down as one of the greatest World Cup upsets ever.

The star: Fiji’s centre-turned-breakaway Levani Botia defines the incredible and unorthodox skills of this team. He is as happy winning breakdowns as throwing no-look passes behind his back. An ace in a very strong pack.

One to watch: Georgia’s ability to produce consistently excellent props is well known, but less is known about their backs. Fullback Davit Niniashvili is an outstanding custodian who is strong aerially and is a star for Lyon in France’s Top 14.

Fast Fact: Portugal’s captain and centre Tomas Appleton is a dentist by trade, but also relishes his role as an enforcer in the backline.

Qualifier prediction (Winner/Runner-up):

Payten: Australia, Wales
Decent: Australia, Fiji
Cully: Australia, Fiji
Drennan: Australia, Fiji

Pool D

• England (8)
• Japan (14)
• Argentina (6)
• Samoa (12)
• Chile (22)
  
  Form guide: Another pool that looked straightforward until August rolled around. Initially, the only intrigue appeared to be whether England or Argentina will top the group. But then England lost to Fiji, and Samoa almost beat Ireland, and suddenly pool D became another with the potential for shockwaves.

England were finalists in 2019 but have since gone backwards, sliding down to No.8 in the world. After sacking Eddie Jones, new coach Steve Borthwick has overseen three wins from eight games (two against Wales and one against Italy) and, most recently, that humbling loss to Fiji at home. The Red Rose enter the tournament as a wobbly mid-tier contender, not a heavyweight challenger. Argentina, under Michael Cheika, loom as the hidden power in this group.

The Pumas beat New Zealand and England last year away, beat Scotland in a series and have downed the Wallabies several times. Cheika has this group humming and full of belief.

Samoa are one of several sides to benefit from World Rugby’s new eligibility rules, which allow Christian Lealiifano and Lima Sopoaga to be back in blue. A third of the squad played for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby, too. They didn’t impress in the Pacific Nations Cup but then gave world No.1 Ireland a huge scare in August, only losing 16-13.

Japan created waves in 2015 and were the darlings of their World Cup in 2019, where they downed Scotland to make the quarter-finals. But they have fallen away since then and don’t appear to have the firepower to do it again.

The crunch game: England v Argentina, Sunday September 10 (AEST). Again, the winner of this pool may be known on the opening weekend.

The star: Argentina’s captain and hooker Julian Montoya is one of the world’s best in his position. He scores tries for fun at club level for Leicester and will be extremely familiar with the England team from playing against them or with them on a weekly basis.

One to watch: Rookie flanker Miracle Fai’ilagi was a rising star for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby and is a hard-running talent who loves scoring tries.

Fast Fact: This is Chile’s first World Cup, becoming the 26th country to appear in a World Cup. Russia, in 2011, were the last country to debut.

Qualifier prediction (Winner/Runner-up):
Payten: Argentina, England
Decent: Argentina, England
Cully: Argentina, England
Drennan: Argentina, England

PLAY-OFF PREDICTIONS

Quarter-final 1: Winner Pool C v Runner-up Pool D
Payten: Australia v England
Decent: Australia v England
Cully: Australia v England
Drennan: Australia v England

Quarter-final 2: Winner Pool B v Runner-up Pool A
Payten: Ireland v France
Decent: South Africa v New Zealand
Cully: South Africa v New Zealand
Drennan: South Africa v New Zealand

Quarter-final 3: Winner Pool D v Runner-up Pool C
Payten: Argentina v Wales
Decent: Argentina v Fiji
Cully: Argentina v Fiji
Drennan: Argentina v Fiji

Quarter-final 4: Winner Pool A v Runner-up Pool B
Payten: New Zealand v South Africa
Decent: France v Ireland
Cully: France v Ireland
Drennan: France v Ireland

Semi-Final 1: Winner QF 1 v Winner QF 2
Payten: Australia v Ireland
Decent: England v New Zealand
Cully: Australia v France
Drennan: Australia v South Africa

Semi-final 2: Winner QF 3 v Winner QF 4
Payten: New Zealand v Argentina
Decent: Argentina v France
Cully: New Zealand v Argentina
Drennan: Argentina v France

Final
Payten: New Zealand v Ireland - winner: Ireland
Decent: New Zealand v France - winner: New Zealand
Cully: France v New Zealand - winner: France
Drennan: South Africa v France - winner: South Africa

Watch all the action from Rugby World Cup 2023 on the Home of Rugby, Stan Sport. Every match ad-free, live and on demand in 4K UHD from September 9.

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