As it happened: Trump wins Iowa Republican presidential caucuses; Ron DeSantis comes in second

The doors have opened at caucus precincts across Iowa and voters have started filing in. I’m at a caucus centre in a hotel in West Des Moines, where Nikki Haley also happens to be holding her campaign party later on.

So far, it doesn’t appear as though the weather has deterred too many people: this particular caucus room can fit about 100 participants and it’s almost full.

One voter, Brad Massey, tells me he’s here to “hopefully get someone other than Donald Trump elected”. Asked who he’d prefer, he says that while he doesn’t always agree with Ron DeSantis, “he seems to try to get things done and seems to have done well in Florida”.

“I would just like less drama and more things to be taken care of,” says Massey, who is here with his wife and three children. “I haven’t voted for a Republican since 2012, but hopefully I can vote for one again.”

As for polls suggesting Trump is likely to win tonight? “Until all the votes are counted, you might as well stand up and have a say.”

As Iowa’s Republicans entered their party’s caucuses to select a Republican presidential candidate on Monday, they were focused on candidates’ views on immigration and the economy, according to preliminary findings of an entrance poll conducted by Edison Research.

Below are highlights from the poll based on interviews with 311 Iowa Republicans as they headed into the caucuses. The results are from the first people arriving at caucus sites, a group that might not be representative of all voters casting ballots. The results will be updated as more interviews are collected.

• Four in 10 caucus-goers said immigration was the issue that mattered most in deciding who to vote for on Monday; four in 10 said the economy; the rest said foreign policy or abortion.
• One in 10 said the most important quality a Republican presidential nominee should have is the ability to beat Joe Biden, compared with four in 10 who said shared values mattered most.

Edison Research conducted the poll on behalf of the National Election Pool, a consortium of news organisations.

Reuters

A local burger spot in Des Moines has rolled out a special menu for Iowa’s first-in-the-nation voting contest.

Zombie Burger posted on its Instagram account that customers can “celebrate the circus with these featured shakes + ONE-DAY-ONLY burgers at Zombie Burger!”

The burger special on January 12 was Mom-Aswamy’s Spaghetti, a smashed vegetarian meatball patty, fried spaghetti and marinara croquette with mozzarella in honour of Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

On January 13, diners could nosh on Meatball Ron, a double smashed meatball patty with mozzarella, fried banana peppers, marinara and a “hidden” garlic bread lift – inspired by Ron DeSantis.

The meal of the day for January 14 was American History 101, featuring a double pimento cheese patty, pulled pork, pulled bacon, fried okra and Carolina Gold sauce. The Carolina Gold sauce was a giveaway for Nikki Haley.

And on caucus night itself, customers could dig into a Day One Dic-Tater, with Flamin’ Hot Cheeto orange kielbasa sausage, Jack cheese, tater rounds, house-made sauerkraut and Russian dressing. Donald Trump recently vowed to only be a dictator on “day one” of his next term.

Diners had the choice of two special drinks: a Sleepy Joe shake or a Dark Brandon shake, both available with an alcohol option.

AP

The brutally cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills in Iowa are also affecting much of the US.

About 150 million Americans were under a wind chill warning or advisory for dangerous cold and wind, said Zack Taylor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in College Park, Maryland, as an Arctic air mass spilled south and eastward across the US.

About 114,000 homes and businesses were without power on Tuesday (AEDT), the bulk of them in Oregon after widespread outages that began late last week. Portland General Electric warned that strong winds forecast and the threat of an ice storm on Tuesday could delay restoration efforts.

The Buffalo Bills football team renewed their call for shovellers at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, on Monday morning to dig out from more than 45 centimetres of snow that fell during a blustery weekend.

Crews had the turf cleared by mid-morning. Citizen shovellers working for $US20 ($30) an hour worked in temperatures in the teens to clear seats for fans ahead of the game.

At first glance it was a daunting task, Bob Isaacs of Buffalo acknowledged a few hours after arriving at 7.30am ahead of the 4.30pm game. He considered his work a contribution to the team.

“You got to remember you’re a Bills fan. It’s all part of the deal,” he said.

The storm was blamed for at least four deaths around Portland, Oregon, on the weekend, including two people who died of suspected hypothermia. Another man was killed after a tree fell on his house, and a woman died in a fire that spread from an open-flame stove after a tree fell onto an RV.

Three deaths of homeless people were under investigation in the Milwaukee area. They likely died from hypothermia, officials said.

Swirling snow and avalanche dangers prompted numerous road closures across the Rocky Mountains in America’s north-west.

Crews continued clearing snow overnight after a weekend avalanche briefly trapped the occupants of 10 cars and shut down the road over Berthoud Pass in central Colorado. Kaitlyn Punzalan was in a car with her husband and some friends heading home to Denver when they were caught in the slide.

“My friend was driving my car and all of a sudden, he goes: ‘Ah, avalanche!’ And we just look up and see all of this snow coming down towards us,” Punzalan told KUSA-TV. She said it took them about an hour to dig out, with help from others who were on the road. No injuries were reported.

AP

Unlike a regular election, Iowa’s caucuses require voters to gather in person in small groups at churches, schools and community centres, where they cast secret ballots after speeches from campaign representatives.

Iowa Republican Party chair Jeff Kaufmann said those speeches could play an outsized role this time because candidates had to cancel so many events due to the weather. Caucus meetings will start at 7pm (12pm Tuesday AEDT) and results are expected a few hours after that.

Another potential wild card: an unknown number of the state’s Democratic voters have registered as Republicans to try to influence the caucus results.

“I just want to be able to look back and say I did what I could to keep Donald Trump from getting elected,” said Toni Van Voorhis, 65, one such crossover voter, who plans to back Haley.

Iowa Democrats will hold caucuses of their own to conduct party business, but they will not vote today for other presidential hopefuls because the party has reshuffled its nominating calendar to put states with more diverse populations ahead of Iowa this year. They will cast their ballots by mail, with the results to be released in March.

There was record turnout at the 2016 Republican caucus, with about 187,000 votes cast, or approximately 29 per cent of the state’s registered Republican voters. Republican turnout was closer to 18 per cent in 2012. Trump’s grip on his most loyal supporters may give him an edge if the freezing conditions convince some voters to stay home.

“Trump is proven to get things done,” said Austin Rasch, 30, a general contractor from Fort Dodge who predicted strong turnout. “It’s Iowa. We’re used to cold.”

Iowa has historically played an outsized role in presidential campaigns due to its early spot on the campaign calendar.

But in 2008, 2012 and 2016 – the last three competitive races – the winner of Iowa’s Republican caucuses did not go on to secure the nomination.

Once a political battleground, the state is now seen as reliably Republican in presidential elections.
Trump has maintained a decisive lead in national polls despite facing four separate indictments, including state and federal prosecutions centred on his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden.

Trump has continued to claim falsely that Biden’s 2020 victory was the result of voter fraud.

Reuters

About a quarter of Iowa Republican voters ranked immigration as the most important issue facing the US while a third picked the economy as their top concern, according to AP VoteCast.

The results of the latest survey in the Midwestern state underscore how the influx of migrants across the southern border has become a national issue, from the strain on towns in Texas to cities such as New York and Chicago.

The Iowa border is about 1300 kilometres from the Mexican border at its closest point.

Most Iowa Republican voters also said they were seeking total or substantial change in how the US government operates.

AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1500 voters who said they planned to take part in today’s Republican caucuses in Iowa.

AP

A year after Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post ran a front-page headline branding Florida governor Ron DeSantis “DeFuture” of the Republican Party, the former Trump ally-turned-rival is fighting to stay in the battle for the GOP nomination, while momentum for former UN ambassador Nikki Haley surges and former president Trump remains dominant.

DeSantis has fallen to third place in the highly respected Des Moines Register/NBC poll, where only 16 per cent of Republican caucus voters said they would select him as their preferred presidential candidate. Haley polled in second with 20 per cent.

The poll, which was taken between January 7 and 12 and has a 3.7 per cent margin of error, was a particular blow for DeSantis, who fell behind despite visiting all 99 counties in Iowa in his efforts to woo voters.

He has also ploughed most of his campaign funds into the state, hoping to build momentum for the next round of primary races in New Hampshire and South Carolina – and, eventually, the party’s nomination to run for the White House.

DeSantis is desperate to avoid a third-place finish, which Republicans say could force him to leave the race.

DeSantis was at a town hall event with his wife, Casey, on Sunday when a US comedian known for pranks against right-wing figures interrupted the event to give him a “participation trophy”.

“You’re probably not going to win the election, right, but we’re proud of you for trying,” said Davram Stiefler of the comedy duo The Good Liars.

DeSantis played down the polls on Sunday, insisting that he liked being underestimated and that the result would be better than the data suggested.

“We’ll do well,” he said – a notable shift from last week, when he was still insisting he could win.

Greetings from America’s freezing Midwest, where voters are braving the snow and subzero temperatures to take part in the first crucial test of the 2024 election: the Iowa caucuses.

The caucuses kick off the US presidential primary season, giving members of the Republican Party a say in who they want as their candidate for the general election in November.

Right now, Donald Trump is the overwhelming frontrunner to win the race, with polls showing him more than 30 points ahead of his Republican rivals: Florida governor Ron DeSantis and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley.

If he wins Iowa tonight – and then goes on to win other primary races over the next few months – it will pave the way for a hard-fought rematch with President Joe Biden.

The big wild card, however, is the weather. Today’s event is the coldest Iowa caucus on record, with expected wind chill temperatures of -34 degrees.

To give you a sense of how cold it’s been, last night I noticed ice forming on the inside of my hotel window – even though I had the heating cranked up full blast.

When you walk outside, it only takes a few minutes before your face goes numb.

While Iowans take their “first-in-the-nation” voting status very seriously, the treacherous conditions could affect the number of people who show up this year to pick their preferred presidential candidate.

That said, Trump’s supporters often say they would “walk on glass” for him, and the former president has long been the favourite to win this contest, while Haley and DeSantis have spent months battling it out for second place.