This was published 2 years ago
The safest countries for Australians to visit during COVID-19 pandemic
By Michael Gebicki
Queenstown, New Zealand. Although New Zealand currently has high COVID-19 cases per capita, it remains one of the safest countries for Australians to visit.Credit: iStock
New Zealand is about to open its doors to Australian travellers. Come midnight on April 12, fully vaccinated Australians are welcome with proof of a negative COVID-19 test. I'm cheering, along with plenty of others. For decades New Zealand has been the number one destination for Australians heading overseas. But there's a problem.
Right now, New Zealand is proving that you can keep the coronavirus at bay as long as you isolate yourself from the wider world, but ease those restrictions and COVID-19 comes romping in.
Much as we might want to renew our acquaintance, a closer look at the current state of COVID-19 in New Zealand suggests caution. According to an analysis published in the New York Times and compiled using data from the Johns Hopkins University, New Zealand is currently averaging 241 new infections daily per 100,000 of its population. That puts it in fifth place among countries with the highest daily case numbers.
On the bright side, the figure for new cases is in steep decline, down 30 per cent over the past 14 days. As of April 8, 95 per cent of the eligible population is fully vaccinated and 96 per cent have had at least one does. Almost 73 per cent have had a booster shot. International visitors are required to have a RAT test on arrival and another on day 5/6. New Zealand has a reciprocal healthcare agreement with Australia.
If you were to visit and fall sick with COVID-19 and require medical intervention, you'd be eligible for treatment in the country's public healthcare system. For all those reasons, I'm giving it a tick as a safe country to visit.
Using the same data sourced on April 7 from The New York Times Coronavirus World Map and Reuters' COVID-19 Tracker, how does New Zealand stack up against some of the other countries we're most likely to visit this year?
USA
Case numbers rocketed between Christmas and mid-January and have since been in decline. Currently the USA is seeing just four per cent of the peak infection rate recorded in mid-January. Cases have plummeted in California, Texas and Florida but New York and the New England states are infection hotspots, albeit with declining daily case numbers. Although just two-thirds of the eligible population in the USA has been fully vaccinated, the current average of fewer than nine new daily cases per 100,000 residents suggests a low risk. Verdict: moderately safe.
Canada
Canada has done well in its efforts to combat the coronavirus with fewer than 10 per cent of its population infected. Case numbers, which spiked in early January, most likely resulting from intermingling over the Christmas/New Year holiday period, have since slowed. The Maritime Provinces along the east coast are recording fewer cases than the rest of Canada, but even the provinces that Australians are most likely to visit - British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario - are recording fewer new cases than any Australian state apart from WA. Verdict: safe.
India
After shocking case numbers in 2021, India is rebounding from the pandemic, currently recording fewer than one per cent of the peak infection rates of May 2021. Over the past 14 days case numbers have dropped by 44 per cent, with the average daily case number currently for the whole country just over 1100, a fraction of Australia's figure. Apart from the state of Mizoram, which borders Myanmar, other states are recording fewer than one daily new infection per 100,000 population. Undercounting is suspected. Unless India has radically revised its reporting methodology, this is nothing less than miraculous. Verdict: moderately safe.
Indonesia
Our favourite Asian holiday destination is well on the road to recovery with the number of new cases at just four per cent of the peak numbers recorded on February 20. About 60 per cent of Indonesia's population is fully vaccinated while for Bali the figure is 27 per cent higher. Bali currently has 463 active cases in a population of 4.3 million, equal to nine cases per 100,000 which suggests a low risk level. Verdict: moderately safe.
UK
The UK is at 26 per cent of peak infection numbers reported on January 5 and that's not a high number relative to other western European countries and even Australia's, currently at 70 per cent of peak. The infection rate is trending downwards, with case numbers 36 per cent lower than 14 days previously. The whole of England and Scotland shows as a hotspot on the NYT map while Wales has far fewer daily infections. The infection rate in Greater London is 14 per cent below the national average. Verdict: slightly unsafe.
Italy
After experiencing the same mid-January infection spike as the rest of Europe, daily cases are trending downwards, currently eight per cent fewer than two weeks previously. Italy is maintaining its 'Super Green Pass' system – proof of vaccination or recovery from COVID-19 required to access most public spaces, venues and businesses – but this is expected to end on May 1. The regions with the lowest infection rates are all in the north, from Valle d'Aosta in the north-west to Friuli Venezia Giulia in the north-east. Verdict: moderately safe.
France
France is experiencing an upswing in case numbers, up by 28 per cent from the average two weeks previously. Numbers began rising in mid-March, coinciding with a relaxation of COVID-19 protocols and schools reopening after the winter holidays. While that number is a concern it was expected, and case numbers appear to be on a plateau in early April. Authorities are cautiously optimistic that new infections will soon decline. Almost 80 per cent of the French population has been fully vaccinated. Verdict: moderately safe.
Argentina
Daily case numbers are low and falling sharply from the most recent peak in January 2022, currently just four new daily cases per 100,000 population. That's despite relatively low-level COVID-19 restrictions. Numbers could rise again as the country heads into winter, as happened in mid-2021. Over 80 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated. Verdict: safe
Morocco
Averaging just 92 new infections per day, and well down from the January spike, Morocco instituted tough COVID-19 protocols that are paying off now that the country has reopened to foreign tourists. Almost 75 per cent of residents are fully vaccinated. The current infection rate stands at 0.2 new cases per 100,000 residents. Verdict: safe
Australia
For the sake of comparison, how is Australia looking through the same lens applied to other countries in this survey? The current figure of close to 57,000 new cases on average per day is a rise of 15 per cent from the average recorded two weeks ago. The current new case rate of 226 per 100,000 residents puts Australia's infection rate higher than any other country in Europe except for Germany. Verdict: moderately unsafe.
See also: Border Force defends new passenger arrivals app, despite scathing reviews
See also: Vaccine certificates for overseas travel are now available: Here's how to get one
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