Watch Trump’s Iowa victory speech in full – including the moment he brings a man on stage wearing a brick-print suit representing the wall on the US-Mexico border.
This was published 3 months ago
As it happened: Trump wins Iowa Republican presidential caucuses; Ron DeSantis comes in second
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Watch: Trump speaks after winning Iowa caucuses
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Farewell
By Josefine Ganko
That’s where we’ll leave today’s live blog.
Here are the key points from the Iowa caucus, where Iowan Republicans braved subzero temperatures to cast their votes in the first caucuses of the 2024 US presidential election.
- Donald Trump is one step closer to returning to the White House, after passing the first major test of his ambitious political comeback with a decisive win.
- Trump is on track to set a record for a contested Iowa Republican caucus with a margin of victory exceeding the nearly 13 percentage points that Bob Dole won by in 1988.
- The race for second was much closer, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis beating former UN ambassador Nikki Haley in the fierce fight to emerge as the clear alternative to Trump.
- Multimillionaire biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy finished fourth and will end his 2024 presidential bid. Ramaswamy formally endorsed Trump.
For an in-depth summary of the Iowa vote, click here.
Analysis: Iowa caucus was Trump’s to lose, DeSantis’ to win, and Haley’s to exploit
With the Iowa Republican caucuses all wrapped up, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age’s North America correspondent Farrah Tomazin explains why the Iowa landslide proves Republicans are buying what Donald Trump is selling.
If he didn’t win resoundingly, his rivals would have been able to claim a moral victory and argue that more Iowans braved snow and sub-zero temperatures to vote against him than for him.
If he did win big, it would be yet another sign that the modern-day Republican Party is very much the party of Trump and his Make America Great Again movement.”
To read Tomazin’s full analysis, click here.
Biden says Trump is ‘clear frontrunner’
By Josefine Ganko
US President Joe Biden posted to X, formerly Twitter, to downplay the significance of Donald Trump’s victory in Iowa.
Even as he dubbed the former president the “clear frontrunner on the other side”, he suggested that the result in Iowa doesn’t change anything.
He says the election was always going to be between him and “extreme MAGA Republicans”.
With Bloomberg
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Lowest turnout in nearly 25 years
Whether it was the frigid conditions or Trump’s projected victory, Iowa Republicans turned out at the lowest level for nearly a quarter of a century.
About 100,000 Iowans filed into precincts to vote, according to projections released by state Republican chair Jeff Kaufmann.
About 186,000 Iowans turned out for the Republican caucuses in 2016.
Bloomberg
How AP was able to call Trump’s win after just 31 minutes
By James Lemon
Supporters and politics followers (and some journalists, I’ll admit) were taken aback when the Associated Press declared Trump had won the Iowa caucuses just half an hour after they met.
The AP has explained how it was able to come to a decision so quickly. I’ll copy you in below.
How AP declared Trump won so quickly
The Associated Press declared the former president the winner based on an analysis of initial returns as well as results of AP VoteCast, a survey of voters who planned to caucus on Monday night. Both showed Trump with an insurmountable lead.
Initial results from eight counties showed Trump with far more than half of the total votes counted as of 8.31 pm (US eastern time). These counties included rural areas that are demographically and politically similar to a large number of counties that had yet to report.
In traditional primaries, AP does not declare a winner in any race before the last polls are scheduled to close in the contest. It’s sometimes possible to declare a winner in those races immediately after polls close, before any vote results are released. AP does so only when its VoteCast survey of voters and other evidence – including the history of a state’s elections, details about ballots cast before Election Day and pre-election polling – provide overwhelming evidence of who has won.
The Iowa caucuses are different. There are no “polls” and no fixed time when all the voting ends. Instead, there is an 8pm deadline for voters taking part to arrive at their caucus site, at which point deliberations among caucus-goers begin behind closed doors. Some caucus sites might complete their business in a few minutes, while others can take some time to determine the outcome.
For that reason, AP followed its past practice and did not make a “poll close” declaration of the winner on Monday night. Instead, AP reviewed returns from caucus sites across Iowa and declared Trump the winner only after those results, along with VoteCast and other evidence, made it unquestionably clear he had won.
AP
DeSantis tries to put positive spin on distant second place
By Nick Ralston
The governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, has attempted to take a positive from the Iowa result, where he will finish a distant second to Donald Trump.
“They threw everything but the kitchen sink at us,” DeSantis told supporters. “They spent almost $50 million attacking us, no one has faced that much … the media was against us, they were writing our obituary months ago.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters after finishing a distant second to Donald Trump in the Iowa caucuses.Credit: AP
DeSantis also criticised the media for calling the result within 31 minutes, “before people got the chance to vote”.
“They were just so excited about the fact they were predicting that we wouldn’t be able to get our ticket punched here out of Iowa, but I can tell you because of your support – in spite of all of that they threw at us, everyone against us – we got our ticket punched out of Iowa.”
DeSantis had long staked his success in Iowa on courting the state’s Christian conservative voting bloc.
He embraced a hardline stand on abortion, backing a ban on the procedure at six weeks, while Trump suggested a more flexible standard. He often spoke at rallies about strapping on “the armour of God”. He inveighed against policies that supported transgender rights.
It didn’t work. The early entrance polling showed Trump with nearly twice the support of the state’s evangelical voters over DeSantis: 51 per cent to 29 per cent.
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Vivek Ramaswamy quits the race
Multimillionaire biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is set to finish fourth and will end his 2024 presidential bid.
His spokesman says he is suspending his campaign after a poor showing in Iowa, where he has 7.7 per cent of the vote. Ramaswamy is now endorsing Donald Trump as the party’s candidate.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy during a Republican candidate debate in December.Credit: AP
Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old born in Ohio to parents who migrated from southern India, was one of the surprises of the 2024 Republican race dominated by Trump.
A fierce defender of Trump throughout the campaign, Ramaswamy likely secured himself a spot in Republican politics going forward for his youthful demeanor, deep pockets and fast-talking, pugnacious campaigning.
However, Trump turned on him in the final days leading up to the Iowa caucus, calling him a “fraud” and asserting that a vote for Ramaswamy was a vote for the “other side”, before congratulating him in his victory speech on “coming from nothing” to almost 8 per cent.
– with Reuters
Watch: Nikki Haley speaks
Nikki Haley has finished speaking in Iowa. You can now replay her speech, where she opens by proclaiming Iowa has made the primaries a two-person race – despite the fact that she finished third.
DeSantis finishes distant second, Haley third
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has finished in second place in Iowa’s caucuses, beating former UN ambassador Nikki Haley in the fierce fight to emerge as the clear alternative to Donald Trump.
The Associated Press has determined that DeSantis will finish a distant second to Trump. With an estimated 10 per cent of ballots remaining to be counted – and votes reported in all but one of Iowa’s 99 counties – DeSantis leads Haley by approximately 2300 votes, or about 2 percentage points.
Ron DeSantis speaks during a campaign event at an Iowa pub yesterday.Credit: AP
DeSantis was tipped to pull out of the race if he didn’t beat Haley, after he visited every single country in Iowa and poured millions of dollars into his campaign there.
Haley isn’t doing well enough anywhere to catch DeSantis, based on the number of outstanding votes. She will address her supporters in Iowa shortly.
The race now moves to New Hampshire, which votes on January 23. Both DeSantis and Haley were well behind Trump, who was on track to set a record for victory margin in a contested Iowa GOP caucus.
AP
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Record-breaking win for Trump
Trump is on track to set a record for a contested Iowa Republican caucus with a margin of victory exceeding the nearly 13 percentage points that Bob Dole won by in 1988.
The former president has spent much of the past year building a far more professional organisation in Iowa than the relatively haphazard effort he oversaw in 2016, when Texas Senator Ted Cruz carried the caucuses. His team paid special attention to building a sophisticated digital and data operation to regularly engage with potential supporters and ensure they knew how to participate in the caucuses.
Donald Trump in a “Trump Caucus Captain” hat.Credit: AP
Trump’s victory party was dotted with people wearing white “Trump Caucus Captain” hats like the one the former president donned at a rally on Sunday. Captains were responsible for turning out at least 10 caucus-goers for Trump.
“God called us to do that to support Trump,” said 64-year-old David Lage, donning a captain’s hat at the party.
Iowa has been an uneven predictor of who will ultimately lead Republicans into the general election. George W Bush’s 2000 victory was the last time a Republican candidate won in Iowa and went on to become the party’s standard-bearer.
AP
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